ERCOT Analyzes Electric Supply For Upcoming Winter And Spring Seasons

AUSTIN, TX – The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) anticipates there will be sufficient installed generating capacity available to serve system-wide forecasted peak demand this winter and in spring 2020.

Yesterday, ERCOT released its final Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) report for the upcoming winter season (December 2019 – February 2020) and its preliminary assessment for the spring season (March – May 2020).

“We studied a range of potential risks and believe there will be sufficient operating reserves to meet the forecasted peak demand,” said Manager of Resource Adequacy Pete Warnken.

The winter SARA includes a 62,257 MW winter peak demand forecast. The forecast is based on normal weather conditions during peak periods, from 2003 through 2017. 

ERCOT’s all-time winter peak demand record was set on Jan. 17, 2018, when demand reached 65,915 MW between 7 and 8 a.m.

More than 82,000 MW of resource capacity is expected to be available for peak demand this winter, including 136 MW of winter-rated resource capacity (gas-fired and wind) that has become commercially operable since the release of the preliminary winter SARA.

An additional 768 MW of planned winter-rated resource capacity is also expected to be available for the winter season. This includes new gas-fired generation as well as wind and utility-scale solar projects.

The winter SARA includes a unit outage forecast of 7,163 MW during the winter months, which is based on historical winter outage data compiled since 2016.

ERCOT also expects to have sufficient generation available to meet system-wide demand in spring 2020. Based on expected spring peak weather conditions, the preliminary SARA report for spring 2020 anticipates a seasonal peak demand of 64,233 MW.

Based on ERCOT’s preliminary assessment, an additional 2,903 MW of planned resource capacity comprised of gas-fired units, wind and utility-scale solar is expected to be available to meet the spring peak demand. The final spring SARA report for 2020 will be released in early March.

The SARA report is based on an assessment of generation availability and expected peak demand conditions at the time it was prepared.

The assessment takes into account expected generation outages that typically occur during each season for routine maintenance, as well as a range of generation outage scenarios and weather conditions that could affect seasonal demand.