TCEQ Air Quality Forecast Update: Saturday – Tuesday

TCEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast Update

Saturday 05/21/2016
Winds may be light enough and incoming background levels high enough for ozone to reach “Moderate” or possibly higher levels in the Houston area and “Moderate” levels in the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, and Tyler-Longview areas, with highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Elevated but decreasing background levels associated with a continental air mass over Southeast Texas along with sufficient additional local add-on could also be enough for PM2.5 AQI levels to remain at the lower end of the “Moderate” range in the Houston area and the upper end of the “Good” range in the Beaumont-Port Arthur area.

Light amounts of patchy smoke from agricultural burning in Mexico and Central America is expected to return to South Texas and could raise the daily PM2.5 AQI into the lower end of the “Moderate” range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen and Laredo areas, with increasing fine particulate levels impacting Corpus Christi later in the day, though the daily AQI in this area is expected to remain in the “Good” range overall.

Elsewhere in the state, moderate winds and/or lower incoming background levels should help to keep air quality in the “Good” range.

Sunday 05/22/2016 Outlook
Incoming background levels may remain high enough for ozone to reach “Moderate” levels in the El Paso area and, if there is enough afternoon sunshine, in the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas, with highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Patchy smoke from agricultural burning in Mexico and Central America should continue over South Texas and gradually spread northward inland and along the coast. Overall, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach “Moderate” levels in the Brownsville-McAllen, Corpus Christi, Laredo, and San Antonio areas, with increased fine particulate still in the “Good” range impacting Victoria and Houston later in the day as the smoke continues to advance northward along the coast.

Overall, elevated incoming PM2.5 background levels associated with a weakening continental air mass transitioning to smoke from Mexico and Central America along with sufficient additional local add-on could be enough for PM2.5 AQI levels to remain at the lower end of the “Moderate” range in the Houston area.

Strong afternoon winds could generate and transport light amounts of blowing dust into parts of far West Texas, including the El Paso area, though the duration and intensity are not expected to be enough to raise the daily PM10 AQI beyond the “Good” range.

Elsewhere in the state, moderate winds, increased cloud cover, and/or lower incoming background levels should help to keep air quality in the “Good” range.

Monday 05/23/2016 Outlook
Patchy smoke from agricultural burning in Mexico and Central America should continue over parts of South and South Central Texas while increasing into Southeast Texas, with the daily PM2.5 AQI forecast to reach “Moderate” levels along and south of a line from Eagle Pass to San Marcos to Orange.

Strong afternoon winds could generate and transport patchy blowing dust into parts of far West Texas, including the El Paso area, where the daily PM10 AQI could possibly reach the lower end of the “Moderate” range overall.

Incoming background levels may remain high enough for ozone to reach “Moderate” levels in the El Paso area, with highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Elsewhere in the state, moderate winds and/or lower incoming background levels should help to keep air quality in the “Good” range.

Tuesday 05/24/2016 Extended Outlook
Patchy smoke from agricultural burning in Mexico and Central America should continue over parts of South, South Central, and Southeast Texas while gradually spreading northward into parts of Central Texas, with the daily PM2.5 AQI forecast to reach “Moderate” levels in spots along and south of a line from Del Rio to Temple to Jasper.

Incoming background levels may remain high enough for ozone to reach “Moderate” levels in the El Paso area, with highest concentrations in the afternoon and early evening.

Strong afternoon winds could generate and transport light amounts of blowing dust into parts of far West Texas, including the El Paso area, though the duration and intensity are not expected to be enough to raise the daily PM10 AQI beyond the “Good” range.

Elsewhere in the state, moderate winds and/or lower incoming background levels should help to keep air quality in the “Good” range.